What's Happening to Crime in the Bega Valley?
Data Analyst Adam Mather Shares an Insight
Last year whilst creating relevant data analysis charts for the Bega Valley, I came across two different analysis that, while both being factually correct, when compared to each other might seem contradictory.
The graphs below are taken from NSW Recorded Crime by Offense data from 2010 to 2023.
The vertical axis in the first graph shows the number of all recorded assaults in the Bega Valley from 2010 to 2023. The vertical axis in the second graph shows the number of crimes committed against justice procedures over the same period – which includes breaches to apprehended violence orders.
If you look at the number of breaches in apprehended violence orders and compare it to the number of assaults recorded over the same time frame you’ll notice an incongruous relationship.
The rate of recorded incidents of assault from 2010 to 2023 has been on a steady decline whereas the number of recorded breaches in AVO’s over the same period has been on a sharp incline.
This may seem contradictory – More people breached their AVO’s, yet fewer assaults were recorded. What does this tell us?
Clearly we don’t have enough data. Perhaps a more important question is what doesn’t it tell us?
In attempting to solve this incongruity, what becomes apparent are the gaps in our knowledge, and how little we are actually seeing of the broader picture. What other questions does this insight raise?
What influences a person’s decision to take out an AVO or to report an assault? How effective are AVO’s in preventing further assaults? How easy is it to inadvertently breach the conditions of an AVO? Especially in smaller communities where geographic proximity to the victim’s home/family/social or work life could be significant factors.
While it’s tempting to speculate that perhaps more people are taking out AVO’s which increases the chance of breaches occurring, we could also entertain the possibility that these breaches have been made by a smaller number of people who are repeatedly coming into contact with their victims – either deliberately or inadvertently. These speculations throw up all sorts of questions of their own and very soon we realise how little we actually know about ourselves.
At the moment though, in the case of the incongruous breaches to AVO’s, without further data to fill in the picture we are no closer to understanding why? Instead we are left with the What are we missing?… And Where can we find it?
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